Plugged In @ Hinman Straub
August 29, 2022
Primary and Special Election Results and General Election Preview
Special Elections
There were two special elections to fill vacancies in congress, one created by the resignation of Antonio Delgado when he assumed the role of Lieutenant Governor and one created by the resignation of Tom Reed. Democrats retained the seat held by Delgado and Republicans retained the seat held by Reed, however, Democrats overperformed in both districts fueling national speculation that November may not be as favorable to Republicans as once assumed.
Congressional District 19
Pat Ryan (D) – 51.07%
Mark Molinaro (R) – 48.75%
There is a possibility that both will serve in congress after November’s General Election as they are both running for a full term in different districts. Molinaro is running to represent the new CD-19, while Ryan will be running to represent the newly drawn CD-18.
Congressional District 23
Max Della Pia (D) – 46.37%
Joe Sempolinski (R) – 52.84%
Sempolinski, a one-time aide to Rep. Reed, will serve the remainder of his term. Della Pia, who overperformed expectations will face Nick Langworthy in November for the opportunity to win a full term.
Congressional Primaries and General Election Preview
Congressional District 1
Republican Primary
Nick LaLota – 47.36%
Michelle Bond – 26.97%
Anthony Figliola – 25.21%
Nick LaLota (R), the Republican Party endorsed candidate defeated both challengers and will take on Bridget Fleming (D), the uncontested Democratic candidate. The seat is currently held by Lee Zeldin (R) who is running for Governor.
Nate Silver’s 538 rating: Lean R, with LaLota winning in 74 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 2
Republican Primary
Andrew Garbarino – 51.16%
Robert Cornicelli – 39.59%
Mike Rakebrandt – 8.60%
Incumbent Congressman Andrew Garbarino (R) soundly defeated two challenges fueled by anger over his vote on President Biden’s infrastructure bill. He will go on to face off against Jackie Gordon (D), the uncontested Democratic candidate, in a rematch of 2020.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid R, with Garbarino winning 96 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 3
Democratic Primary
Robert Zimmerman – 35.20%
Jon Kaiman – 25.55%
Joshua Lafazan – 19.66%
Melanie D’Arrigo – 15.58%
Reema Rasool – 2.45%
Robert Zimmerman defeated frontrunner Joshua Lafazan soundly in a multi-candidate primary for the Democratic nomination. Zimmerman (D) will face George Santos (R), the uncontested Republican candidate. The seat was formerly held by Tom Suozzi, who decided not to run for re-election to pursue an ultimately unsuccessful Gubernatorial bid.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Lean D with Zimmerman winning in 67 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 4
Democratic Primary
Laura A. Gillen – 62.02%
Carrie Solages – 24.00%
Keith Corbett – 10.82%
Md Muzibul Huq – 1.48%
Laura Gillen beat sitting Assembly Member Carrie Solages in a lopsided primary. Gillen (D) will take on uncontested Republican candidate Anthony D’Esposito (R). The seat was formerly held by Kathleen Rice (D).
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Likely D with Gillen winning in 85 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 5
Incumbent Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) is the uncontested Democratic candidate and will take on the uncontested Republican candidate Paul King (R) in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Meeks winning 100 out of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 6
Incumbent Rep. Grace Meng (D) is the uncontested Democratic candidate and will face the uncontested Republican candidate Thomas Zmich (R) this fall.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Meng winning 100 out of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 7
Democratic Primary
Nydia Velazquez – 81.83%
Paperboy Love Prince – 15.27%
Incumbent Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) fended off a quixotic challenge from someone named Paperboy Love Prince. She will take on uncontested Republican candidate Juan Pagan (R) in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Velazquez winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 8
Democratic Primary
Hakeem Jeffries – 86.05%
Queen Johnson – 12.46%
Incumbent Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D) easily defeated his primary opponent and will go on to face uncontested Republican challenger Yuri Dashevsky (R) in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Jeffries winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 9
Incumbent Rep. Yvette Clarke (D) was uncontested in a Democratic Primary will face uncontested Republican candidate Menachem Raitport (R) in the fall.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Clarke winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 10
Democratic Primary
Dan Goldman – 25.63%
Yuh-Line Niou – 23.62%
Carlina Rivera – 16.87%
Mondaire Jones – 18.09%
Jo Anne Simon – 6.13%
Elizabeth Holtzman – 4.37%
Buoyed by a New York Times endorsement, Dan Goldman (D) was able to prevail in this closely watched primary over several quality candidates. Second place finisher Yuh-Line Niou has not yet conceded the race and there is speculation that she will run for the seat in November on the Working Families Party ballot line. If she does, that could make for an interesting race considering Goldman only won the primary with 25.63% of the vote and several progressive candidates cannibalizing the left’s vote.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Goldman defeating Republican challenger Benine Hamdan (R) in 100 out of 100 simulations. 538, however, has not yet taken into consideration a WFP challenge from Yuh-Line Niou, in either case, the seat will remain in the Democratic column.
Congressional District 11
Democratic Primary
Max Rose – 73.63%
Brittany Ramos Debarros – 20.41%
Komi Agoda-Koussema – 4.17%
Republican Primary
Nicole Malliotakis – 77.86%
John Matland – 21.35%
Former Rep. Max Rose (D) easily defeated his primary opponents and will go on to face incumbent Rep. Malliotakis (R) in a rematch of the much-watched 2020 race in which Malliotakis defeated Rose. Both candidates had superficial primaries with neither being seen as a contest, however, more Democrats (21,555) voted in the Democratic primary than Republicans (15,685), which may possibly point to an unexpected Democratic enthusiasm advantage in the district.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Likely R with Malliotakis winning 94 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 12
Democratic Primary
Jerrold Nadler – 55.22%
Carolyn Maloney – 24.29%
Suraj Patel – 19.09%
Ashmi Sheth – 1.01%
Incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler was able to defeat fellow incumbent Rep. Carolyn Maloney in this closely watched primary. Once viewed as being one of the most competitive primaries this year, Nadler was able to build momentum in the end, helped by a New York Times endorsement and a solid base of support in his hold district. Nadler will face uncontested Republican Michael Zumbluskas in November.
Nat Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Nadler winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 13
Democratic Primary
Adriano Espaillat – 77.52%
Michael Hano – 12.26%
Francisco A. Spies – 5.95%
Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat comfortably won his primary and will take on uncontested Republican challenger Gary Ruben Richards (R) in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Espaillat winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 14
Republican Primary
Tina Forte – 66.58%
Desi Joseph Cuellar – 31.42%
Republican challenger Tina Forte won a primary for the privilege of losing to incumbent Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Ocasio-Cortez winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 15
Incumbent Rep. Richie Torres is the uncontested Democratic nominee to retain his seat. He will face uncontested Republican nominee Stylo Sapaskis in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Torres winning 100 out of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 16
Democratic Primary
Jamal Bowman – 55.50%
Vedat Gashi – 23.06%
Catherine F. Parker – 19.08%
Mark Jaffe – 1.79%
Incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) easily handled his multi-candidate primary. He will take on uncontested Republican challenger John Ciampoli (R) in November.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Bowman winning 100 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 17
Democratic Primary
Sean Patrick Maloney – 66.21%
Alessandra Biaggi – 32.71%
Republican Primary
Michael V. Lawler – 74.80%
William G. Faulkner – 11.28%
Charles J. Falciglia – 8.46%
Shoshana M. David – 2.68%
Jack W. Schrepel – 1.14%
Incumbent Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney claimed an enormous victory over progressive challenger State Senator Alessandra Biaggi. Assemblyman Michael Lawler also had a decisive primary win with almost 75% of the vote.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Likely D with Maloney winning in 86 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 18
Democratic Primary
Pat Ryan – 82.95%
Aisha Mills – 12.81%
Moses R. Mugulusi – 2.65%
Newly elected Rep. Pat Ryan (Special Election to replace Rep. Delgado) also defeated all challengers in his primary election. He will face unopposed Republican nominee and current Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in November’s General Election.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Toss Up with Ryan winning in 53 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 19
Democratic Primary
Josh Riley – 61.52%
Jamie Cheney – 35.29%
Josh Riley defeated his democratic opponent and will face uncontested Republican Marc Molinaro in November. Molinaro was just defeated by Pat Ryan to replace Rep. Antonio Delgado, however, this district appears to be more Republican friendly than the previous version of CD-19.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Likely R with Molinaro winning in 76 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 20
Democratic Primary
Paul Tonko – 87.52%
Rostislav Rar – 11.59%
Incumbent Rep. Paul Tonko easily defeated his primary challenge. He will move on to face unopposed Republican nominee Liz Joy in a rematch of 2020.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Tonko winning 99 out of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 21
Democratic Primary
Matt Castelli – 80.27%
Matt Putorti – 18.57%
Matt Castelli easily won the Democratic primary to take on incumbent and unopposed Republican Elise Stefanik.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid R with Stefanik winning 99 out of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 22
Democratic Primary
Francis Conole – 39.25%
Sarah Klee Hood – 35.56%
Sam Roberts – 13.14%
Chol Majok – 11.65%
Republican Primary
Brandon M. Williams – 57.91%
Steve Wells – 41.33%
Francis Conole (D) edged out a victory in the Democratic primary and will face off against Brandon Williams (R) who won an upset victory over the more moderate Steve Wells. The seat was formerly held by centrist Rep. John Katko (R) and was a perennial target for House Democratic Leadership.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Toss Up with Conole winning in 58 out of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 23
Republican Primary
Nick Langworthy – 51.13%
Carl Paladino – 46.93%
Nick Langworthy, chair of the State Republican Party, eked out a win over far right Carl Paladino. The seat was formerly held by Rep. Tom Reed (R) who resigned over a scandal involving unwanted touching of a female lobbyist. Langworthy will move on to face Max Della Pia, the uncontested Democratic nominee who lost a surprisingly close Special Election for the seat held on the same night to a former Reed staffer.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid R with Langworthy winning 99 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 24
Republican Primary
Claudia Tenney – 53.43%
Matt Fratto – 40.17%
George Phillips – 5.85%
Incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) won her primary and will face unopposed Democratic candidate Steven Holden in November’s General Election.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid R with Tenney winning 97 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 25
Incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle (D) is the unopposed Democratic candidate to take on fellow unopposed Republican candidate La’Ron Singletary.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Morelle winning 97 of 100 simulations.
Congressional District 26
Democratic Primary
Brian Higgins – 90.34%
Emin Eddie Egriu – 8.61%
Incumbent Rep. Brian Higgins (D) destroyed his primary competition and will face unopposed Republican candidate Steven Sams in the General.
Nate Silver’s 538 Rating: Solid D with Higgins winning 99 of 100 simulations.
State Senate Primaries and General Election Preview
Senate District 1
Incumbent Sen. Anthony Palumbo (R) was unopposed in a primary and will face unopposed Democratic candidate Skyler Johnson (D). The seat was held by longtime Republican Ken LaValle prior to his retirement in 2019. Palumbo defeated Laura Ahearn in 2020 with 51.4% of the vote.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +1
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +1 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +1 in Presidential years.
Senate District 2
Incumbent Sen. Mario Mattera (R) was unopposed in a primary and will take on Susan Berland, the unopposed Democratic candidate. The seat was held for many years by former Majority Leader John Flanagan, who declined to run for reelection in 2020 to pursue other opportunities. Sen. Mattera defeated Democratic candidate Michael Siderakis in 2020 with 56.8% of the vote.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +3
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +5 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +4 in Presidential years.
Senate District 3
Former Assemblymember Dean Murray (R) is the unopposed Republican nominee to take on fellow unopposed Democratic candidate Farzeen Bham.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +2
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +7 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +4 in Presidential years.
Senate District 4
Democratic Primary
Monica Martinez – 64.80%
Phillip Ramos – 34.54%
Former Senator Monica Martinez defeated siting Assemblyman Phillip Ramos in the Democratic Primary. Martinez will take on the unopposed Republican candidate Wendy Rodriguez.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +26
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +24 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +25 in Presidential years.
Senate District 5
Incumbent Senator John Brooks (D) is the unopposed Democratic candidate. He will face the unopposed Republican candidate Steven Rhodes in November. Brooks has served in the State Senate since defeating Republican Michael Venditto in 2016.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +2
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +6 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +3 in Presidential years.
Senate District 6
Incumbent Senator Kevin Thomas (D) is the unopposed Democratic candidate for SD-6. James Coll (R), also unopposed in the Republican primary, will take on Senator Thomas in November. Thomas defeated longtime Republican Senator Kemp Hannon in a surprise victory in 2018.
Democrats have heavy advantages in both enrollment and turnout in this newly drawn district.
Senate District 7
Democratic Primary
Anna Kaplan – 78.95%
Jeremy M. Joseph – 13.23%
Incumbent Senator Anna Kaplan (D) easily defeated her primary opponent and will go on to face Former State Senator Jack Martins who represented the area from 2011-2016. Martins stepped away from the Senate to run for County Executive where he lost to a close election to Laura Curran. Martins was succeeded by Republican State Senator Elaine Phillips who held the seat for one term before losing to Kaplan.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +8
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +7 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +8 in Presidential years.
Senate District 8
Incumbent Senator Alexis Weik (R) will run against John Alberts (D) in November. Neither candidate was challenged in a primary. Weik defeated State Senator Monica Martinez in 2020, one of the few Republicans to defeat an incumbent democrat for State Senate.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +15
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +20 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +17 in Presidential years.
Senate District 9
Two newcomers Kevin Moore (D) and Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick (R) will face off in November to replaced Former Senator Todd Kaminsky (D). Kaminsky resigned recently to pursue other opportunities after being soundly defeated in the race for Nassau County District Attorney. Prior to Kaminsky, the seat was held by former Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R). Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick is an attorney and Moore is the Mayor of the village of Bellerose, neither were contested in their primary.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +13
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +10 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +12 in Presidential years.
Senate District 10
Incumbent Senator James Sanders (D) is the unopposed Democratic candidate running for reelection in SD-10. He will face Republican candidate Gabriel Boxer. James Sanders was first elected in 2012, he succeeded Shirley Huntley (D). Joe Biden won the district with 87% of the vote in 2020.
Senate District 11
Incumbent Senator Toby Ann Stavisky (D) will be challenged in November by Republican candidate Stefano Forte (R). Stavisky was first elected to the State Senate in 1998. She succeeded her late husband Leonard Stavisky (D). Biden carried the district with 87% of the vote in 2020.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +46
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +50 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +47 in Presidential years.
Senate District 12
Incumbent Senator Michael Gianaris (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 13
Incumbent Senator Jessica Ramos (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 14
Incumbent Senator Leroy Comrie (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 15
Democratic Primary
Joe Addabbo – 56.25%
Japneet Singh – 28.70%
Albert Baldeo – 13.93%
Incumbent Senator Joe Addabbo (D) defeated two challengers in the primary and will face Danniel Maio (R) in the General Election. Addabbo was first elected in 2008. He succeeded Serphin Maltese (R). Addabbo has held off Republican challenges in the past in a district that was less advantageous to him. The new lines, drawn by the special master, will be even better than the previous iteration of his district. Biden’s vote share in 2020 under the new district line increases to 64%, as opposed to 53.9% under Addabbo’s old district.
Senate District 16
Incumbent Senator John Liu (D) will have a General Election challenge by Republican Ruben Cruz II. Neither candidate was opposed in a primary. Liu was first elected to the Senate in 2018 after he defeated IDC member Tony Avella in a primary. Prior to that Liu served as New York City Comptroller. Biden carried this district with 62.4% of the vote in 2020.
Senate District 17
Iwen Chen (D) is the unopposed Democratic candidate for SD-17 while Republican candidate Vito LaBella (R) was also unopposed in a primary. This new district is most similar to the district once held by Republican Marty Golden, who was defeated in 2018 by Andrew Gounardes (D). Gounardes is running for reelection in a more favorable district this year. The district, while having massive democratic enrollment and turnout advantages, tends to vote more Republican than those statistics would imply. However, despite past tendencies, this district has improved for Democrats. Under the old version, Trump won the district with 51.2% of the vote. The new version of the district would have been carried by Biden with 58.3% of the vote.
Senate District 18
Incumbent Senator Julia Salazar (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 19
Incumbent Senator Roxanne Persaud (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 20
Incumbent Senator Zellnor Myrie (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 21
Democratic Primary
Kevin Parker – 45.61%
David Alexis – 37.49%
Kaegan Marie Mays-Williams – 16.09%
Incumbent Senator Kevin Parker (D) withstood a challenge from the left, beating his primary opponents easily. Senator Parker will not face an opponent in the General Election.
Senate District 22
Incumbent Senator Simcha Felder (D/R) was unopposed in both the primary for the Democratic nomination as well as in the primary for the Republican nomination, he will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 23
Democratic Primary
Jessica Scarcella-Spanton – 57.72%
Sarah Blas – 16.00%
Bianca Rajpersaud – 15.63%
Rajiv S. Gowda – 7.55%
Republican Primary
Joseph Tirone – 75.65%
Sergey Federov – 20.29%
Jessica Scarcella-Spanton (D) won the Democratic primary and will take on Joseph Tirone (R) in November’s General Election. The seat was last held by Diane Savino (D) who decided not to run for reelection to the Senate, she later announced she would be taking a position in Mayor Adams administration. Biden would have carried the district in 2020 with 56.4% of the vote.
Senate District 24
Incumbent Senator Andrew Lanza (R) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a Democratic challenge in the fall.
Senate District 25
Democratic Primary
Jabari Brisport – 69.09%
Conrad Tillard – 15.33%
Renee Holmes – 13.60%
Incumbent Senator Jabari Brisport (D), a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated mainstream challenges and won handily, including a candidate backed by Mayor Adams. Senator Brisport will not face a General Election opponent.
Senate District 26
Democratic Primary
Andrew Gounardes – 64.15%
David Yassky – 32.60%
Incumbent Senator Andrew Gounardes (D) easily defeated a well-funded and well-known primary challenger in David Yassky. Gounardes will face a nominal challenge from Republican Brian Fox in November. Biden would have carried this district in 2020 with 85% of the vote.
Senate District 27
Democratic Primary
Brian Kavanagh – 54.23%
Vittoria Fariello – 27.09%
Danyela Souza Egorov – 11.50%
Incumbent Senator Brian Kavanagh (D) won his primary with a majority of the vote in this multi-candidate race. He will not have a General Election opponent in November.
Senate District 28
Incumbent Senator Liz Krueger (D) was unopposed in the primary and will face a nominal General Election challenge from Awadhesh Gupta (R) in the heavily Democratic district.
Senate District 29
Incumbent Senator Jose Serrano (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 30
Democratic Primary
Cordell Cleare – 67.19%
Shana G. Harmongoff – 28.31%
Incumbent Senator Cordell Cleare (D) defeated her opponent in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 31
Democratic Primary
Robert Jackson – 57.20%
Angel I. Vasquez – 32.43%
Francesca M. Castellanos – 4.86%
Ruben Dario Vargas – 3.91%
Incumbent Senator Robert Jackson (D) outperformed expectations with his primary win this week. The new version of the district is majority Hispanic with a large Dominican population. U.S. Representative Adriano Espaillat endorsed Jackson’s opponent, Angel Vasquez, leading to much speculation that Senator Jackson may lose the primary. Jackson, however, won convincingly and will not face a General Election challenger.
Senate District 32
Incumbent Senator Luis Sepulveda (D) was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and will face a challenge from Antonio Melendez Sr. (R) in the General Election.
Senate District 33
Democratic Primary
Gustavo Rivera – 51.41%
Miguelina Camilo – 46.85%
Incumbent Senator Gustavo Rivera (D) won a close primary against Bronx Democratic Party endorsed candidate Miguelina Camilo. Rivera had a majority of Labor support, but, Camilo was endorsed by the two largest unions by membership in district. Rivera will not face a General Election opponent.
Senate District 34
Democratic Primary
Nathalia Fernandez – 60.54%
Christian M. Amato – 27.93%
John Perez – 7.47%
Siting Assemblymember Nathalia Fernandez (D) won the primary to replace outgoing Senator Alessandra Biaggi, who lost a congressional primary to Sean Patrick Maloney. Fernandez will face Republican Samanta Zherka in November. Biden would have carried the district with 75% of the vote in 2020.
Senate District 35
Incumbent Senator and Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins was not challenged in a primary. She will face Republican Khristen Kerr in a district that would have been won by Biden with 68.8% of the vote.
Senate District 36
Incumbent Senator Jamal Bailey (D) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a General Election challenge.
Senate District 37
Incumbent Senator Shelley Mayer (D) was unopposed in the primary and will face a General Election challenge from Republican Frank Murtha. This district would have been won by Biden with 66.6% of the vote in 2020.
Senate District 38
Incumbent Senator Elijah Reichlin-Melnick (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. He will face Republican candidate Bill Weber in November, also unopposed. This district was only slightly changed from the previous version by the special master. The change was in the Republicans favor as Biden carried the old district in 2020 with 53% of the vote, the new version would have put Biden’s vote share at 51.5%. This election is a rematch of 2020 between Reichlin-Melnick and Bill Weber, where Reichlin-Melnick prevailed with 48.85% of the vote. Despite a large democratic party enrollment advantage, the district votes more evenly than enrollment would suggest, evidenced by Rockland County having a Republican County Executive.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +22
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +38 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +36 in Presidential years.
Senate District 39
Unopposed Democratic candidate Julie Shiroshi (D) will take on Republican candidate Rob Rolison (R) in November’s General Election. The district is without an incumbent and includes portions of three different former Senate districts. Julie Shiroshi is the chair of the Dutchess County Democratic Party, while Rob Rolison is the current Mayor of the City of Poughkeepsie. Rolison is son of former State Senator Jay Rolison who served from 1967 to 1990.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +10
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +6 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +8 in Presidential years.
Senate District 40
Incumbent Senator Pete Harckham (D) was unopposed in the Democratic Primary. His General Election opponent, also unopposed, will be Republican Gina Arena (R). Harckham was first elected in 2018 when he defeated incumbent Republican Terrence Murphy. The new district is slightly different than the old version, having gotten a few points better for democrats. Harckham defeated a well-funded challenge from Republican Rob Astorino in 2020.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +12
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +12 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +12 in Presidential years.
Senate District 41
This November’s General Election will feature two incumbents, Michelle Hinchey (D) and Sue Serino (R). The two popular incumbents were drawn into the same district by the special master. The district has enough of each Senator’s former district to provide a solid base of support for each. The district favors Democrats, but, not by insurmountable margins.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +10
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +9 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +10 in Presidential years.
Senate District 42
Incumbent Senator James Skoufis (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. He will face unopposed Republican Dorey Houle in November’s General Election. The previous version of this district was an even 50-50 split between Trump and Biden in 2020. The new version is slightly better for Republicans as Trump would have carried the new version with 51.6% of the vote. Skoufis has routinely outperformed top of the ticket democrats in past elections.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +5
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +1 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +2 in Presidential years.
Senate District 43
Current Assemblymember Jake Ashby (R) ran unopposed and will be the Republican candidate in November. Andrea Smyth (D) was also unopposed and will represent Democrats in this race. The district is a combination of portions of Sue Serino’s (R) old district and Daphne Jordan’s (R) old district. It is composed mainly of Rensselaer County, most of Washington County, and the Town of Colonie in Albany County.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +8
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +6 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +7 in Presidential years.
Senate District 44
Republican Primary
James Tedisco – 77.12%
Daphne Jordan – 22.39%
This Republican primary featured two incumbent State Senators. Senator Tedisco (R) had represented large portions of the district when in the Assembly, though does not currently live in the district. He will need to move prior to next election. Senator Jordan (R) ultimately ended her campaign prior to primary night but was still on the ballot despite not campaigning for the seat. Tedisco will face Democratic candidate Michelle Osterlich in November’s General Election.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +1
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +3 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +1 in Presidential years.
Senate District 45
Incumbent Senator Dan Stec (R) will face Democratic candidate Jean Lapper in November’s General Election. Neither candidate was opposed in a primary. The district is very similar to Betty Little’s (R) North Country seat covering the Adirondack region.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +5
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +6 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +5 in Presidential years.
Senate District 46
Incumbent Senator Neil Breslin (D) will face Republican challenger Richard Amedure (R) in November’s General Election. Neither candidate was opposed in a primary. The new district covers all of Albany County except the Town of Colonie, All of Schenectady County with the exception of the City of Schenectady and Niskayuna, and all of Montgomery County. Breslin’s old district was carried by Biden with 69% of the vote, the new district would have been carried by Biden with 60% of the vote.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +22
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +22 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +22 in Presidential years.
Senate District 47
Democratic Primary
Brad Hoylman – 69.41%
Maria Danzilo – 25.65%
This district, spanning the West Side of Manhattan, appears out of numerical order. Incumbent Senator Brad Hoylman (D) defeated his primary opponent and will not face a Republican challenger in November.
Senate District 48
Conservative Primary
Justin M. Coretti – 50.37%
Julie Abbott – 47.25%
Incumbent Senator Rachel May (D) will face Republican challenger Julie Abbott (R) in November. Abbott lost a close Conservative Party primary due to her pro-choice position on abortion. As a result, the ballot will feature three candidates, helping Senator May.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +10
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +7 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +9 in Presidential years.
Senate District 49
Current Assemblymember Mark Walczyk (R) was unopposed in the primary and will not face a Democratic challenger in November. The seat was open by virtue of Senator Patty Ritchie’s (R) decision to not run for reelection.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +24
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +30 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +27 in Presidential years.
Senate District 50
Incumbent Senator John Mannion (D) will face Republican challenger Rebecca Shiroff (R) in November. Neither candidate was opposed in a primary. The new district contains the suburbs of Syracuse and portions of Oswego County. The district, which has been traded by the Republicans and Democrats since longtime Senator John DeFrancisco (R) retired, is better for Republicans than previous iterations.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +3
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +4 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +3 in Presidential years.
Senate District 51
Republican Primary
Peter Oberacker – 52.11%
Terry Bernardo – 46.97%
Incumbent Senator Peter Oberacker (R) staved off a surprisingly close primary election. He will face Eric Ball (D) in November’s General Election.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +7
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +9 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +8 in Presidential years.
Senate District 52
Democratic Primary
Lea Webb – 58.77%
Leslie Danks Burke – 37.23%
Lea Webb (D) won a primary over perennial candidate Leslie Danks Burke. She will move on to face Rich David (R) in November’s General Election. Lea Webb is a former city councilmember in the City of Binghamton and supports progressive causes such as the NY Health Act. Rich David is the Mayor of the City of Binghamton. The seat was vacated by outgoing Senator Fred Akshar (R) who is leaving to run for County Sheriff. The new district contains Binghamton, Ithaca, and Cortland and will be a target for Senate Dems this cycle.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +13
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +12 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +12 in Presidential years.
Senate District 53
Incumbent Senator Joe Griffo (R) was unopposed in a primary and will not face a Democratic challenge in November.
Senate District 54
Incumbent Senator Pam Helming (R) was unopposed in a primary. She will be running against Democrat Keenan Balridge in November.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +13
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +17 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +15 in Presidential years.
Senate District 55
Incumbent Senator Samra Brouk (D) will face a challenge from Republican Len Morrell in November. The new district contains more of the City of Rochester and far less of the rural portions than the previous district.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +18
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +17 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +17 in Presidential years.
Senate District 56
Incumbent Senator Jeremy Cooney (D) will take on Republican challenger Jim VanBrederode in November. Neither faced a primary challenge. The new district contains a larger portion of the City of Rochester than the previous version.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +23
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +19 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +21 in Presidential years.
Senate District 57
Incumbent Senator George Borrello (R) will face a Democratic challenge from Daniel Brown in November. The new version of the district would have been won by Trump with 66% of the vote in 2020.
Enrollment:
The district has a Republican enrollment advantage of +16
Turnout:
The district has a Republican turnout advantage of +22 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Republican turnout advantage of +20 in Presidential years.
Senate District 58
Incumbent Senator Tom O’Mara (R) was not challenged in a primary and will not face a Democratic challenge in November.
Senate District 59
Democratic Primary
Kristen Gonzalez – 57.03%
Elizabeth Crowley – 31.89%
Michael D. Corbett – 6.35%
Nomiki Konst – 1.53%
Francoise Olivas – 1.10%
This new district contains part of Midtown Manhattan and Queens. The Democratic primary featured former city councilmember Elizabeth Crowley, who was seen as the frontrunner for the seat, and other more progressive candidates. Labor had almost exclusively back Crowley, but, Democratic Socialist of America member Kristen Gonzalez won by a wide margin. She will not face a Republican challenger in November.
Senate District 60
Incumbent Senator Patrick Gallivan (R) did not have a primary opponent and will not face a Democratic challenge in November.
Senate District 61
Democratic Primary
Sean Ryan – 80.92%
Benjamin S. Carlisle – 12.67%
Republican Primary
Ed Rath – 77.79%
Joel Giambra – 20.64%
This race will feature two incumbent Senators in Sean Ryan (D) and Ed Rath (R). Both were successful in fending off primary challenges. The district contains a portion of the City of Buffalo, but, is predominantly suburban. Democrats will have an advantage in this district as it would have been won by Biden with 62.7% of the vote in 2020.
Enrollment:
The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage of +20
Turnout:
The district has a Democratic turnout advantage of +20 in Gubernatorial Elections and a Democratic turnout advantage of +20 in Presidential years.
Senate District 62
Incumbent Senator Rob Ortt (R) was not challenged in a primary and will not face a Democratic challenge in November.
Senate District 63
Incumbent Senator Tim Kennedy (D) was not challenged in a primary and will not face a Republican challenge in November.