Plugged In To Education – November 4, 2020

**Election Special Edition**

2020 Election Results

See chart below for absentee returns*

In yet another interesting and chaotic Election Night, the New York State Legislature will once again have a number of new members from across the state and on both sides of the aisle. Due to the significant amount of absentee ballots still outstanding, the official results of many of these races may not be decided for days or even weeks. We will provide you with necessary updates on the returns as they become available. Please see our synopsis below and do not hesitate to contact us with any questions.

Federal

A reliably “Blue State,” former Vice President Joe Biden has secured New York’s 29 Electoral Votes and is currently leading President Trump 58.2% to 40.5%. Of the 27 U.S. House seats, it currently appears that two seats will switch parties. On Staten Island, Republican Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis has defeated the incumbent, Rep. Max Rose (D) in NY 11, and in Central New York (NY 22) the seat will flip from Democrat Rep. Anthony Brindisi back to Republican Claudia Tenney, who previously held the seat. New York’s Congressional Delegation heading into 2021 will likely be 18D, 9R. Democratic U.S. Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand were not up for reelection.

State Senate

After flipping the upper house two years ago, Senate Democrats were poised in 2020 to make additional gains to their current 40-23 seat majority, with many eyeing a 42 seat veto-proof majority. However, at the time of this writing, it appears that the Senate Republicans may have made significant inroads and have been able to win some seats back that they lost in 2018 and narrow the majority’s margin.

Possible Republican Gains (7):

Three Democratic seats on Long Island (previously held by Republicans) are in danger of flipping back to the GOP:

  • Senator Kevin Thomas (D) trails Dennis Dunn (R) by 7,694 votes
  • Senator Jim Gaughran (D) trails Edmund Smyth (R) by 13,883 votes
  • Senator Monica Martinez (D) trails Alexis Weik (R) by 13,767 votes

Also:

  • In Brooklyn, Senator Andrew Gounardes (D) trails Vito Bruno (R) by 6,035 votes;
  • In Rockland County, Democrat Elijah Reichlin-Melnick is trailing Republican William Weber by 3,149 votes;
  • In the Hudson Valley/Catskills, Senator Jen Metzger trails Mike Martucci (R) by 10,631 votes,
  • And in the Hudson Valley/Westchester, Senator Pete Harckham (D) trails Rob Astorino (R) by 7,453 votes.

Republican candidates appear to have also won races to succeed six retiring Republicans:

  • Republican Anthony Palumbo is leading the race in SD 1, versus Democrat Laura Ahearn.
  • Republican Mario R. Mattera is ahead of Democrat Michael G. Siderakis in SD 2.
  • Republican Dan Stec has declared victory over Kimberly Davis (D) in SD 45.
  • Republican Richard M. Amedure, Jr. is leading the race in SD 46, over Democrat Michelle Hinchey.
  • Republican Angi Renna has a narrow lead vs. Democrat John W. Mannion in SD 50.
  • Republican Peter Oberaker appears to have won SD 51, over Democrat Jim Barber.

Possible Democratic Gains (3):

In the Rochester-area two open seats currently held by retiring Republicans, Democratic candidates are currently ahead :

  • Samra Brouk (D) currently leads Christopher Missick (R) by 5,056 votes
  • Jeremy Cooney (D) currently leads Mike Barry (R) by 882 votes

In the Buffalo seat formerly held by Chris Jacobs (R), Assemblyman Sean Ryan (D) leads Republican Joshua Mertzluft by approximately 16,000 votes and has declared victory.

Too Close to Call (1):

Democratic Syracuse Senator Rachel May currently leads Sam Rodgers (R) by 136 votes.

Should these results hold, the Democrats in the Senate would still hold a 37-26 or a 36-27 seat majority in January 2021.

In most cases, the number of absentee ballots favor the democratic candidate in varying degrees and, as a result, some of these results may change.

State Assembly

The Democrats in the State Assembly have held a sizable majority since the 1970s. It appears however, that, for the first time in recent memory, Republicans have made some gains in the chamber in 2020, albeit not enough to drastically impact the Democratic Majority.

The following Democrat-held seats are in jeopardy of flipping to the GOP:

  • AD 4 – Englebright (D)
  • AD 10 – Stern (D)
  • AD 16 – OPEN (D)
  • AD 21 – Griffin (D)
  • AD 26 – Braunstein (D)
  • AD 46 – Frontus (D)
  • AD 63 – Cusick (D)
  • AD 97 – Jaffee (D)
  • AD 127 – Stirpe (D)
  • AD 140 – OPEN (D)
  • AD 142 – Burke (D)
  • AD 143 – Wallace (D)
  • AD 146 – McMahon (D)

Should most of these races hold, Assembly Democrats would still have a majority of +/- 100 seats out, of a total of 150 in that chamber.

Of the close state legislative races, the following represents absentee returns as of Election Day. Please keep in mind these numbers will grow as absentee ballots can be accepted after Election Day as long as they are postmarked on Election Day.

The following counts are broken down by party affiliation. Party affiliation is instructive but not determinative. In typical elections, absentee ballots tend to break in a very similar manner as the machines. This year, however, may be different as the number of absentee ballots returned are much higher than typical.