Plugged In @ Hinman Straub – November 18, 2020

**Election Update**

2020 Election Update

In the days following Election Day, the volume of absentee ballot returns ballooned from 1.2 million to just over 2 million statewide (400,000 were returned in the 2016 Presidential Election). So far – and fitting with the national trend – absentee and mail-in ballots are heavily favoring the Democratic candidates and incumbents. Seats that initially appeared to favor Republican challengers due to large Election Day leads, are now trending in the opposite direction.

State Senate

In the State Senate, it appears that only two of the Election Day leads by Republicans will withstand absentee counts. Democrats are likely to win a supermajority, allowing them to override a Governor’s veto and have additional influence in Budget and Chapter Amendment negotiations.

SD 3 Martinez (D) vs. Weik (R)

One of only two Election Day leads that appears to still favor the Republican challenger. Counting in Suffolk County is occurring now and is ongoing. Alexis Weik appears to be the likely winner in this race.

Likely Winner – Alexis Weik (R)

SD 5 Gaughran (D) vs. Smyth (R)

The freshman Democrat James Gaughran was trailing by more than 13,000 votes after Election Day. Absentee ballots returned totaled 43,906 (21,322 by Democrats, 9,417 by Republicans, and 11,185 not enrolled in a major political party). As of today, Gaughran had pulled ahead in the race with a full day of counting in Suffolk to continue. Gaughran’s challenger conceded on Wednesday, after falling behind.

Winner – James Gaughran (D)

SD 6 Thomas (D) vs. Dunne (R)

Freshman incumbent Kevin Thomas has overcome his Election Day deficit and his opponent has conceded the race

Winner – Kevin Thomas (D)

SD 7 Kaplan (D) vs. Franklin (R)

Anna Kaplan finished well ahead of her opponent on Election Day and absentee ballots quickly put this race away. Her opponent has conceded.

Winner – Anna Kaplan (D)

SD 22 Gounardes (D) vs. Bruno (R)

Freshman incumbent Andrew Gounardes was trailing his opponent after Election Day by 6,000 votes. Gounardes had pulled ahead in the race as of Tuesday night. Gounardes declared victory on Wednesday.

Winner – Andrew Gounardes (D)

SD 40 – Harckham vs. Astorino

Less is known about this race as absentee ballot counting in Westchester County had not yet begun as of this writing. Astorino lead Election Day by 7,500 votes, however, enough absentee ballots were returned – as long as the statewide trend continues – Harckham should be favored to win.

Winner – Unknown (lean Harckham (D))

SD 42 – Metzger (D) vs. Martucci (R)

This is the only other contested race that may be won by a Republican. It does not appear that Metzger will be able to overcome her Election Day deficit.

Likely Winner – Mike Martucci (R)

SD 46 – Hinchey (D) vs. Amedure (R)

This race figures to be close after all ballots are counted. Hinchey is steadily gaining ground even as they move from less favorable counties to counties that are more favorable.

Winner – Unknown/Too Close (slight lean Hinchey (D))

SD 50 – Mannion (D) vs. Renna (R)

This race began counting absentee ballots earlier than many of these other races, however, due to a COVID outbreak at the Onondaga County Board of Elections, this race will likely be decided last. Mannion had been gaining ground at a rate that would likely overtake Renna by the end of counting, though the race will be close in either direction.

Winner – Unknown/Too Close (slight lean Mannion (D))

Other Central and Western NY races

Incumbent Rachel May (D) won re-election comfortably after absentee ballots were counted.

Two Rochester area Senate seats flipped from Republican to Democrat after Samra Brouk won convincingly in SD 55 (Funke) and Jeremy Cooney won in SD 56 (Robach).

Sean Ryan (D) won the Buffalo area seat once held by Chris Jacobs (R) handily.

State Assembly

The current trend in Senate races with absentee ballots overcoming Election Day deficits for Democrats is being mirrored in close Assembly races. Incumbents that trailed like Cusick, Englebright, and Stern will end up winning comfortably. Thus far, the only incumbent that was down after election day and will lose appears to be Jaffee who was defeated by Mike Lawler (R). Republican incumbent Mark Johns of suburban Rochester was defeated by Democrat challenger Jen Lunsford. The Assembly will retain its supermajority.